https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1848154717580566772?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
#22 pollster on 538
If Trump wins, in some way it would be comforting to see him actually get 51% rather than winning through some combo of EC and 3rd party vote. But it has to be like 10 to 1 against that he actually gets to 51%.
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If Trump actually manages to win the popular vote, the Democrats really shouldnāt bother trying to run anything other than a middle-aged white dude for the next generation or so.
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Yeah if itās just a matter of the majority of Americans being awful bigots then itāll be a measure of 
. But itās much more likely that itās just that the system will favor the slim minority of awful bigots.
Either way, there sure are a lot of awful bigots.
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From listening to focus groups, there is also a huge chunk of Americans that legit think that Trump has the ability to make eggs and gas cost what they did in the summer of 2020.
Iām sort of optimistic that the the final shakeout of lower propensity and undecided voters will work out for Harris. Harris definitely has the stronger contingent of high propensity reliable voters.
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Are we gonna do electoral college map predictions in this thread, or should we have a separate thread for that? Iām thinking separate thread
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Iāve said this before, but after 2015 ~all the Libertarian bros became Trumpers en masse. It was always just a dumb meme cult version of Republican orthodoxy.
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Yankees gonna win it all imo.
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Jesus Christ
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Remember when there was a legit discussion 2 months ago about whether Harris should avoid any mainstream press and play hide the ball until November?
Live from in line for early voting in Columbus Ohio. Surprisingly crowded for a mid weekday. Saw a Vivek 2024 bumper sticker in the parking lot (on the same car as two Trumps and a Reagan sticker). Iām internally eyeballing and stereotyping every person in line.
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Atlas intel is dogshit from what I read and likely just got lucky before
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Cliffs?
Lot of people holding on to the democratic endorsed flyer they were handing out outside. Did not see anyone handing out Republican info. But thatās not surprising given the heavily democratic location. Really diverse mix by age, gender, and race. Guy in front of me is wearing a Chicago marathon shirt from last year.
Currently listening to the silence of the lambs episode of the Rewatchables.
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Walking out behind a guy wearing a Jim beam t shirt. Heās slurring his words a little but loudly saying/yelling āGod bless America. Youāve got to be fucking stupid to vote for that fucking ho. Gonna be a landslide.ā
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Is it legal to hand out fliers at a voting site?
In Ohio, you just have to be outside a certain distance from the property and not within ten feet of any person in line if it extends outside the voting place and surrounding areas.
Do you early vote on Morse Rd? I went last week, couldnāt really get a vibe. It was very efficient and basically no wait even though a decent crowd.
Everywhere Iāve lived itās legal to hand out flyers if youāre a certain distance away from the polling place.