I am literally shocked at the number of people on this board going for the 950k, if it was like 10% chance at 30 million I would understand taking the negative EV to get the sure thing, but this level of risk aversion from a group of people who are splintered off from a gambling forum is mind boggling to me.
So how about a guaranteed $30M vs. a 45% chance at a $billion? Same?
Because for me the $30M would be a super no-brainer. I have no use for any more money than that, and I’m not really eager to become the kind of person who would.
Exactly. A milly would sort me out nicely. What am I getting for 30 million? I don’t want a fucking boat, I love my wife and don’t want anyone younger or anything and I can buy all the weed I need. I just wanna tell my boss to fuck off and I think a mill can sort that if I’m careful with it.
3 Likes
Yeah it’s tough because I am not a guy with expensive tastes and the difference between 30 million and a billion is basically how much I can give to charity. Even if I get nothing I am pretty financially secure
Obviously the play is to try to sell your stake in the 45% but assuming that is not possible I’d like to think that I would probably still take the risk and just never tell my family in case I didn’t get the billion, but it’s hard to know for sure I wouldn’t chicken out until the moment of truth. I would obviously take the 30 million over 45% chance at 100 million despite the negative EV, but it’s such a huge difference to a billion
The fact that you were literally shocked that there exist people here who would choose a guaranteed 1M kinda clued us in to this already. Tell me you’re super rich without telling me you’re super rich and all that.
2 Likes
I’m not super rich by any American definition. 950k would absolutely change my life. I am, however, pretty secure in my career.
Edit: I’m also not shocked that anyone here takes the 950k or that many people in general will take it. What’s shocking is how many people on this site, with a gambling heritage, still say they choose the 950k knowing how large the expected value difference is.
$950,000 is a lot of fucking money. Part of the psychology of taking it over the chance at a ton more is the mental anguish that would come from losing the flip. That kind of money in real life is a lot different than EV decisions in poker.
1 Like
We still haven’t established if it that’s after tax or if this is going to get taxed at 50%-ish.
It’s not that hard to understand if you see this as a question about bankroll management. If taking the sure 950k will massively decrease your risk of ruin, then the responsible choice is to pass up EV to take the surer thing. The more financially secure you are, the bigger your liferoll, the more freedom you have to take that gamble. The closer you are to being homeless, the more wildly irresponsible it is to embrace the variance.
1 Like
Assuming both are taxed equally, does it matter?
I understand but the whole thing is a freeroll. It’s not as if you were going about your life counting on a mysterious 950k to materialize out of nowhere and make your rent payments. I would have a different opinion if instead of getting a free 950k I was offered a 45% chance at 30 million but if I lost I would have to pay 950k out of current assets and/or future earnings (and couldn’t be saved by bankruptcy or similar legal tactics)
From a bankroll management perspective I guess it’s the same, but from a life perspective my budget and standard of living are sized based on my current income. Not getting a 950k windfall would be a bummer but it wouldn’t make me immediately homeless or anything.
Yes - $425k is a lot less likely to be life-changing/insta-financially secure money than $950k imo.
This didn’t factor in for me at all. For me it was all about utility. I was assuming a no-tax scenario BTW. If it was taxed I flip easy, and have no regrets if I lose. Psychologically I know I could fade the hit of losing easily.
So long as you understand that people who have significantly less job security, who might be a lot closer to living paycheck-to-paycheck with not much savings for retirement ought to take the sure thing and pass up EV. What would you do if 950k represented your likely income for the next 15-20 years?
It’s not a simple expected value calculation though.
(1 * 0.95) < (0.45 * 30), yes, we all know that.
But the actual value of the first million is >>> that of the thirtieth million, unless you are already quite rich.
4 Likes
I figure that 950k should be enough to buy one of those wish granting monkey paws. That’s all I need.
3 Likes
It’s really hard to know because it depends on a lot of life circumstances. How old am I, am I married, do I have kids, how old are they, what is my rent, what debts do I have? I am sure there are scenarios where I would take the 950k but they are pretty few because mostly I would already have found a way to live within my current means. I did make well under 50k for a good part of my life and had no problem saving money and would have still preferred the 45% of 30 million, although I was single and there’s obviously been inflation since.
I thought this was a good read
3 Likes
The truth of it all, he says, isn’t in this theory or that. “People go where people accept them, or are nice to them, and away from people who are mean to them.” It wasn’t always coherent, but it didn’t have to be. “Historically speaking, authoritarian reactionary movements have been the result of, or have gained support and energy from, such incoherence and such contradictions,” Aponte said. “So, some dark shit is happening, and it sucks because I feel like I’ve had a hand in that.”
This
Today, says Bateman, there’s no line between post-left and plain-old Right. “It’s just all this goofy soup, and the people that got off the crazy train are just”— like himself — “leftover Democrats.”
As for the rest?
“This is all building toward a new push for people knowing their place,” says Bateman. “They’re fighting all the same battles the Right fought in the ’80s, ’70s, ’60s: relitigating civil rights, gays, race in America, race and IQ. It’s this train that only goes in one direction, unless you have any sense of what the map looks like. Some of these podcasts are meme-ing George Wallace back into the discourse. They’re relitigating Germany in the ’30s. Everything is in play. You can only be ironic for so long — you can only post so many George Wallace memes — before you start thinking that two sets of water fountains aren’t a bad idea.”
Sweet