Unfortunately I think this might be the same wishcasting about women being a monolithic pro-choice entity that made many of us think we had this thing in the bag yesterday.
I think one of the key differences Iâm seeing is that in 2016 the normies were mostly horrified and in shock that we actually elected Trump. This time they seem to either not care or be openly cheering it.
Of course how would a low info person actually think Trump was a real threat when the Dems did virtually nothing to him once they got power. It just sounds like more BS the Dems always talk about that isnât based in any form of reality like well pretty much their entire âplatformâ that they have no intention of ever enacting.
At a campaign rally in late 2023 or early 2024, Trump bragged that âthe Covid vaccine was one of the greatest medical achievements in history.â Only time I know of Trump got booed at his own rally. He hasnât used that line since afaik.
Exactly. Itâs a combination of âwell everyone said heâd be a disaster but nothing much bad really happenedâ (COVID is a distant memory, tons of people make zero connection between his SC appointments and abortion bans, etc.) and âoh I guess all that other stuff really was a witch hunt since nothing ever came of itâ. Why not run it back again?
Wrote about this in depth elsewhere, but youâre close to something here - the incentives are misaligned. What I mean by that is, Democrat funding/turnout has been largely driven by âtrump will destroy everythingâ messaging (not saying that is incorrect, just stating a fact).
Unfortunately because thatâs what gets them campaign funding, they then have little incentive to make him go away for good, because they lose that, and then they have to govern/differentiate themselves from the GOP. Itâs very cynical, I realize, but until last night the dem establishment had very little incentive to actually deal with Trump.
If you look at all the project 2025 hysteria, which Iâm definitely not saying isnât real or valid, almost all of it was coming from the left. If they truly believed it, why didnât they move any of the levers of power they had available (or pretend to at least) to make this not as realistic of a possibility? Because without that fear they donât get votes. Apparently voters were not that scared this time.
Wow, another case where the conventional wisdom just was totally wrong. I mean I didnât have any SSC delusions that we were peeling off some huge chunk of never-Trumpers over to our side, but I would have thought, I dunno, maybe a (potentially very important) 3% off the top, with 1% of that being actual flips? Having a net -1% instead is batshit crazy.
Maybe, but appealing to the entire population is an entirely different proposition from appealing to the fringe (which is what things like protest movements do). Itâs why, for instance, any support whatsoever for Palestine was a horrible election loser for dems, while there was simultaneously a significant protest movement in favor of Palestine on college campuses.
Do you think people care more strongly about abortion or Palestine?
I agree that there is going to be a fraction of the protest there was in the first term, and also with BSâs point that you are putting yourself at risk of bodily harm if you do.
First time, it felt like a fluke with 1) the Wikileaks/Russia/butter emails/Comey daily drip drip BS that dominated the news cycles 2) Hillary handily winning the popular vote and 3) sense that some people voted Trump as a protest against the Clintons not thinking he actually had a chance to win.
In other words, we were sent on this terrible road by happenstance and without the American people really understanding what they were getting into.
This time, it is crystal clear that the American people chose this path or are at least ok with it.
Politics in america is pro wrestling and Hulk Hogan sells out MSG easier than Bret Hart. Since 92 look at every single president race and which one had more charisma won, except 2020.
Trump lost a step, but how long does it take for you to notice your grandpa started repeating things or when a guy is happy his wife is at the gym getting one on one with Tony all the time?
Vance would have probably gotten beat by Kamala. Obama beats every version of trump, bill c probably wins too.