2024 Election POST MORTEM

[Riverman]

Very bad

https://x.com/ecaliberseven/status/1853963744935649391?s=46&t=XGja5BtSraUljl_WWUrIUg

[ChrisV]

@joltinjake

I’m not looking at it nearly as closely as you, so maybe I’m wrong. But seems to me all we know so far is that Trump is continuing to gain ground in rural Trumpy areas. I.e. more polarization, which is kinda what we’d expect? We need more data from D areas to see how things are shaking out in aggregate.

Right. I just don’t see how you can make any pronouncements about GA with nothing in from the big Atlanta counties. Of course Trump is the favourite to win it still, we knew that going in. The amount of movement seems bonkers to me though.

@TheNewT50

Two dem metro Atlanta counties reporting significant numbers:

Rockdale County (the first county I would consider “Atlanta”) reporting 68.3% of votes and tracking a 5 point shift towards Harris and on pace for over 20% more votes cast.

Douglas county also positive, about 3 points towards Harris and 15% more votes cast.

It’s still early y’all.

Yeah the problem with these two is that this is likely population effects rather than an actual change in voting patterns.

[JordanIB]

If most places report early votes first and more R’s are voting early, I would think we’d expect a lot of this from early totals.

[Melkerson]

@ChrisV

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1853911156026753313

Man, maybe the Dems are going to do it. High turnout seems to be the story of the night everywhere. The polls are definitely going to be wrong because their turnout screens will be cooked.

Am I reading that right? Repubs won Clark County last time? Yet Dems won NV. Really?

[dogsballs]

@Koss

was listening to a podcaster today who said it’s really hard to do whale bio research because once they beach they decompose very quickly and all I could think of was RFK.

What kind of whale bio research is this person pretending to talk about?
In a previous life I was a marine biologist (coral reef stuff tho’).
We all know mammalian biology - so a dead mammal on a beach means nothing much - just a decomposing mammal, on a beach. Population ecology of them, sure, that’s trickier. But you shouldn’t expect to learn anything by looking at one dead one on a beach.

[Fossilkid93]

@Rugby

From an old rich American friend living in the Philippines

“Hoping for a good result back home today. Not looking great!”

I have no idea which way this means.

Responded with

“I know right. Fingers crossed!”

I would’ve responded with “Thanks, you too!”

[Riverman]

It’s with 91% of the vote in

[ChrisV]

“On Election Day”. Only like 11% of NV or something votes on Election Day.

[Koss]

It had something to do with how baleen whales make their calls.

[JordanIB]

Ah fuck I read 8% as the amount reporting.

[Krayz]

This happened last election. We got this

[TheNewT50]

I don’t know what you mean by this.

Clayton reporting 62% of votes, margin towards Harris by 0.5%. Vote totals appear above 2020 by a healthy margin.

[Riverman]

Still think GA is a coin flip, we don’t have enough data

[RiskyFlush]

Me IRL

[WichitaDM]

First huge batch of Fulton Co. in with Harris +43.

[MCG]

Give me some fucking hopium please

[ChrisV]

@WichitaDM

First huge batch of Fulton Co. in with Harris +43.

Yeah that is an oooof, that is not a good number.

[WichitaDM]

Ya, Biden was +46. Very bad news.

[econophile]

CNN calls FL, TN, AL, OK and MO for Trump

MA, MD and DC for Harris

[Koss]

@WichitaDM

First huge batch of Fulton Co. in with Harris +43.