This
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Suspend a guy for betting 1500 because that’s the rules.
Nfl changes the rules for playoffs is very lol but I’m not surprised.
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krayz, you make good points.
i’m still on team #fuckbuffalo though bc this is unstuck and admitting another person is right and changing your opinion based on a series of persuasive posts ain’t how we roll 
tomorrow probably lol.
something about cincinnati having to play at buffalo in the #2/#3 matchup ain’t sitting right with me though. i know buffalo didn’t lose and cincy didn’t win, but… i dunno, if i’m commissioner, i’m saying that divisional game is being played in cincinnati. 
congrats though, you mostly changed the opinion of another person on the internet tonight! i’m gonna stay stubborn bc i still feel like at some point buffalo realized going with the “we’re grieving” route was a freeroll, but you’re right.
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I tried my best to crunch numbers based on available live betting line of the BUF/CIN game combined with the available odds of the week 18 games, and my numbers were mostly in line with those in the table above. Because they were pegged to betting odds, one can certainly argue that the live and advance lines are not fully reflective of “actual” chance to win.
From my calcs, the Chiefs got a portion of the Bills #1 equity (which I pegged at going from ~33% to ~15%), and ALL of the Bengals #1 seed equity (~10%). In return, the Bills receive a neutral site AFC Championship game in the specific event that it ends up Chiefs vs. Bills. I’m not smart enough to calculate that %, but I can’t imagine it is super high.
The Bengals on the other hand lost all of their #1 seed equity (again, maybe 10% or so), and entered into the gambit where if they were specifically the #3 seed and the Ravens were specifically the #6 seed, they’d lose home field advantage 50% of the time by coin toss. My calculations had that scenario (CIN loss vs. BAL * Chargers win vs. Broncos * losing the coin toss) at a bit under 10%. So in exchange for losing their slim parlay at the #1 overall seed, they also will lose a wild card home game in the neighborhood of 10% of the time.
The “upside” though is that the Bengals control their own destiny, and by beating the Ravens make the wild card scenario moot.
The models seem to agree the the Chiefs got a significant bump in competitive EV, the Bills neutral to small disadvantage, and the Bengals modestly disadvantaged.
TLDR; lol Roger
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Hot take: KC will lose today.
Bold - can harvest some major cheddar if true.
I have been thinking this too. The raiders are a weird team and an upset today wouldn’t shock me.
Of course KC 40-13 wouldn’t shock me either.
Ngl, another no contest might be the most entertaining outcome.
What would all the outcomes be if they called it a tie? KC gets bye and homefield unless they lose today, or regardless?
They should have won in their first meeting. Stidham introduces more variance this time around, so a KC blowout wouldn’t surprise me either, but if he and the raiders were able to score 34 points vs SF last week then they can score at least that vs KC.
I took the points because I’m a coward and it gives me protection against the lolraiders factor. I’m at least expecting a close game.
Re: tie, Buffalo would get to take the #1 seed with a win. EDIT: nvm thought you meant a tie between KC & LV.
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Raiders usually pack it in in the last game of the season when they have nothing to play for. If the Chiefs can get up a couple scores, they’ll roll over. If it stays close they might get frisky at the end just to go out on a winning note.
But they never show the same divisional pride as Denver or LAC in these spots. I don’t see them changing that for McDouche.
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Just a note: the jaguars are 8-0 when playing at home on the last game of the season.
If you got 10.5 that’s a great number.
Lol raiders 
Come on Chiefs, keep the foot on the gas, stop them, get one more score and they’ll check out.
Russ, Pat, Jarrett, Justin. What a division.
If runner is down without being touched he is still down?
Oh Jarret
Fuck it I’m going deep
If he intentionally went down and gave himself up yeah. Trip no, or already on the ground no. Sometimes a receiver makes a diving catch and the other team assumes they are down but they get up and score. College is always down.
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