Do the models account for how this new breed of Analytics Coaches are some of the dumbest motherfuckers alive?
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A fitting conclusion to Indigenous Peoples’ Day.
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Bills are going to destroy the Chiefs imo. We might get McDuffie back. But no Willie Gay and apparently Butker is out forever.
Bills also decimated by injuries, but they would roll the KC team that showed up tonight. Nice to get them at home though!
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They also probably don’t correctly factor in late 4th drive TD and FG% for the opponent vs TD/FG drive% for the rest of the game. I need to see the factors of these analytics because there’s no fucking way going for 2 for Oakland was the correct call. Maybe it was for KC since their kicker is shit when they were up 7, normally it wouldn’t be though.
Yeah the replacement kicker was the key. Forcing the Chiefs to either score a TD or get super close before they’d feel comfortable.
Otherwise I think it’s terrible because you force the Chiefs to play perfect. And we have Mahomes.
Yeah I have no confidence that any of the models are anywhere close to correct if they’re made by the same types of boneheads who normally so “sports analytics.”
“The power of balance is being shifted”
–Troy Aikman
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You just need a fairly smart die hard fan of the other team. Ask them what they want you to do, then do the opposite.
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The other thing is if you are tied and KC had the ball 4th and 4 on their own 40 they are punting and you get 2+ minutes to drive down for a winning FG. If you’re up 1 KC is going for it on 4th down and converting >50% of the time and then they only need another 20 yards to set up the game winning FG ( assuming a normal kicker).
edit:
Also, if you miss KC could get 32 yards on 7 plays and 3 1st downs and be at the 48 and then take 3 knees to end the game rather than have to get another 10-15 yards to get a chance at FG to win.
I think some of these ‘advanced analytics’ are so flawed as they don’t factor in things correctly or at all, yet are taken as definitive because it’s just like ‘arithmetic’.
I only like going for 2 to win if you have a call you think will work based on the defense you think/know you might face and there’s less than 40 seconds or so left so your opponent doesn’t have a good chance of going for the game winning fg in response. A lot of coaches with a minute left and no timeouts in a tie game will make the incorrect decision to take a knee and go to OT which should also be factored in.
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It’s the 'analythicks ’
I didn’t realize Trey Smith was out. That explains the running game some.
The Chiefs are now 41-5 in their last 46 AFC West divisional games.
Aikman and Chris Jones calling for looking at roughing the passer in the booth.
Which I’m sure would go just as well as looking at PI in the booth. Refs will rebel against any judgement calls in the booth.
lol?
Edit: ponied by Suzzer in other thread