https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1586505957340684289?t=jUf27GMW8MWUo5e1E0jnUg&s=19
I was laughed at re this
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Fascism it is!
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Baseball it is!
White males
Iāve been tricked by lead ins to Walmart commercials that make me absolutely positive Iām about to see a Tiffany Smiley ad or some PAC bashing a dem for voting 100% with Biden and/or Pelosi. Iām starting to crave the sweet release of death.
If my state goes red bloodbath wonāt be the right term.
What is the gray and yellow
Yellow is someone named Johnson. No clue about the gray.
Is there instant runoff voting in Oregon?
Seems nuts that there is a third party taking a double digit percentage of the vote when the two main candidates are so close.
The crash to zero had me thinking this person:
Nathalie Paravicini (Pacific Green Party / Progressive Party) withdrew from the race on September 2.[6]
But itās a month off according to the chart
There is no instant runoff voting. Betsy Johnson is a Democrat, but a conservative Democrat (a consistent opponent of gun control, for example). What is happening is that it started as a three-horse race (between the incumbent D, the R and Johnson) and as it has become clearer that Johnson canāt win, she is bleeding support to the Republican more than to the incumbent. You can see this here.
This just makes the gray and yellow in the 538 graph even weirder and more confusing to figure out
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Basically Phil Knight is going to buy a governorship. He (and other bigwigs) spent a ton of money keeping an independent/former dem viable with like 15 percent of the vote and now heās funneling money to the Republican candidate late in the race.
Logically late votes should break Dem here and away from independent in a close race but we will see. Oregon could get LePageād
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Isnāt that usually when the independent is further left than the Dem?
In this case, the independent is a āwe have to brutally crack down on crimeā person. Seems like her chosen positioning is āif you want to crack down on crime and also want the state to protect a womanās right to choose, Iām the only choiceā so Iām not sure if this fits the pattern
A lot of people probably do not believe abortion is in danger in Oregon, while also wanting to crack down on crime
Sounds like a plant to me.
As I understand it, the Knight bucks are now going to help the R candidate get those votes by telling folks that their voting issue should be the crime crackdown. A lot of the people who previously supported the unaffiliated candidate like some aspects of the Rs, some aspects of the Ds (and are also kinda just anger bears who hate both major parties) so convincing them to vote at all and how to vote seems to be an exercise in issue salience.
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Guyz- itās going to be ok. Dem Twitter says so
https://twitter.com/simonwdc/status/1586091192067973120?s=46&t=1E6C_pxa3rjMEuhkWR2UqA
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Itās only āpolluting the averagesā if the numbers are inaccurate.
Iām old enough to remember a lot of respectable polls being wildly inaccurate for certain senate races in 2020.
Itās possible that the polls polluting the averages are the non-Republican ones.
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