https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1553051123505840131?s=21&t=eZmCwSCwNdSX_9RHbI-_gg
Not falling for the polls rug this cycle.
Not falling for them YET.
If you just do my patented riverman poll translation youâll get a loose approximation of whatâs actually going on. Just assign all non (D) responses to (R).
No you see weâre going to win over all those Persuadable Republicans by being just like Republicans but less so.
Iâve lost track. Which of these states has burning red state legislatures that are going to ignore results they donât like anyway? Most of them? Or are they going to save that card for 2024?
Theyâre saving that for 2024, I think. The most problematic swing states for straight up riggage are Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona. Maybe PA.
The Supreme Court has a case now that might allow state legislatures to ignore the popular vote in assigning electors, if that happens itâs gg. And weâre relying on Gorsuch or Kavanaugh to save us.
PA is definitely on the list, but weâre currently crushing in the polls because the GOP picked the worst possible candidates for governor and senator.
Crushing in the polls for just senator/governor, or is that extending to the state legislature too?
Thatâs the real problem with the SC case IIRC. Governor doesnât even matter.
Also definitely add Michigan and Georgia to that list.
Gov, probably. Senator, I donât think so. In a vacuum I think Dr. Oz is an above average senate candidate. He has already has significant fame and recognition and doesnât really have a ton of baggage to deal with. Sure heâs from NJ, but Hillary Clinton barely lived in NY, and she won that senate election with ease, so thatâs not a death blow.
Ozâs problem is that he ran into Fetterman. Oz is like pocket tens. Itâs a good hand, but when youâre up against the AA that is Fetterman, then youâre crushed.
McCormick was an infinitely better choice for them and he probably wouldâve probably won against Fetterman, or at least made it really close. Heâs some generic rich white hedge fund dickhead and they lap that shit up. He would easily get the deplorable turnout and the country club Rs as well and the Rs wouldâve unified behind him quicker and more completely than they are for lol Oz.
McCormick may well be better than Oz. But that doesnât make Oz the worst possible.
Worst possible is Hershel Walker types.
I was thinking recently how lucky we are that Oz beat Mccormick. Mccormick was a grade A asshole deplorable. AKA a standard GOP candidate. And he would have resonated much better with voters in the general than Oz is currently imo.
Nah, Oz is quite bad. His favorability is 35/55 in that Fox News poll and I remember at the end of the primaries he was barely above water with Republicans, let alone everyone else. I couldnât find Walkerâs favorable/unfavorable numbers in my minute of googling but I canât imagine heâs worse (although nominating a guy with CTE is certainly a bold strategy). Oz is much more like T2o than TT to use your poker analogy.
If it werenât real life the Walker stuff would be amazing comedy
Oz is tough to evaluate in this spot because Fetterman is making him look bad. If Oz went up against a typical shitlib Dem (i.e., someone Bidenesque), heâd be fine.
How about J9o?
However, to circle back to the original point, even T2o isnât the worst possible.
If you want worst possible, Herschel Walker and Roy Moore types is what youâre after.
It still is. Bill Maher (I know, I know) did a bit on this last night. It was pretty funny.
I havenât seen polls on the state house. Maybe we can ride some coattails to beat the gerrymander but itâll be tough.
Heâs getting just destroyed for this. He didnât make much effort to be in PA before running. Also heâs flip flopped on some issues to run, and heâs a Muslim named Mehmet running as a Republican in the Trump era.
Worst possible of the options in this primary cycle, I should have said.