2022 Midterm Elections (Abandon hope all ye who enter here) butnahhh. or maybe?

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1553051123505840131?s=21&t=eZmCwSCwNdSX_9RHbI-_gg

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:vince1:

Not falling for the polls rug this cycle.

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Not falling for them YET.

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If you just do my patented riverman poll translation you’ll get a loose approximation of what’s actually going on. Just assign all non (D) responses to (R).

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No you see we’re going to win over all those Persuadable Republicans by being just like Republicans but less so.

I’ve lost track. Which of these states has burning red state legislatures that are going to ignore results they don’t like anyway? Most of them? Or are they going to save that card for 2024?

They’re saving that for 2024, I think. The most problematic swing states for straight up riggage are Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona. Maybe PA.

The Supreme Court has a case now that might allow state legislatures to ignore the popular vote in assigning electors, if that happens it’s gg. And we’re relying on Gorsuch or Kavanaugh to save us.

PA is definitely on the list, but we’re currently crushing in the polls because the GOP picked the worst possible candidates for governor and senator.

Crushing in the polls for just senator/governor, or is that extending to the state legislature too?

That’s the real problem with the SC case IIRC. Governor doesn’t even matter.

Also definitely add Michigan and Georgia to that list.

Gov, probably. Senator, I don’t think so. In a vacuum I think Dr. Oz is an above average senate candidate. He has already has significant fame and recognition and doesn’t really have a ton of baggage to deal with. Sure he’s from NJ, but Hillary Clinton barely lived in NY, and she won that senate election with ease, so that’s not a death blow.

Oz’s problem is that he ran into Fetterman. Oz is like pocket tens. It’s a good hand, but when you’re up against the AA that is Fetterman, then you’re crushed.

McCormick was an infinitely better choice for them and he probably would’ve probably won against Fetterman, or at least made it really close. He’s some generic rich white hedge fund dickhead and they lap that shit up. He would easily get the deplorable turnout and the country club Rs as well and the Rs would’ve unified behind him quicker and more completely than they are for lol Oz.

McCormick may well be better than Oz. But that doesn’t make Oz the worst possible.

Worst possible is Hershel Walker types.

I was thinking recently how lucky we are that Oz beat Mccormick. Mccormick was a grade A asshole deplorable. AKA a standard GOP candidate. And he would have resonated much better with voters in the general than Oz is currently imo.

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Nah, Oz is quite bad. His favorability is 35/55 in that Fox News poll and I remember at the end of the primaries he was barely above water with Republicans, let alone everyone else. I couldn’t find Walker’s favorable/unfavorable numbers in my minute of googling but I can’t imagine he’s worse (although nominating a guy with CTE is certainly a bold strategy). Oz is much more like T2o than TT to use your poker analogy.

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If it weren’t real life the Walker stuff would be amazing comedy

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Oz is tough to evaluate in this spot because Fetterman is making him look bad. If Oz went up against a typical shitlib Dem (i.e., someone Bidenesque), he’d be fine.

How about J9o?

However, to circle back to the original point, even T2o isn’t the worst possible.

If you want worst possible, Herschel Walker and Roy Moore types is what you’re after.

It still is. Bill Maher (I know, I know) did a bit on this last night. It was pretty funny.

I haven’t seen polls on the state house. Maybe we can ride some coattails to beat the gerrymander but it’ll be tough.

He’s getting just destroyed for this. He didn’t make much effort to be in PA before running. Also he’s flip flopped on some issues to run, and he’s a Muslim named Mehmet running as a Republican in the Trump era.

Worst possible of the options in this primary cycle, I should have said.