Yeah this bump may not evaporate. Much like we were bombarded with healthcare horror stories pre-ACA, the media will be all over the post Dobbs horror stories. Women are going to die from this and it’s going to get tons of coverage and it’s going to make people angry and scare young women.
I don’t think this is accurate after factoring in all the latest SCOTUS rulings. Source?
The latest fivethirtyeight update said:
After accounting for incumbency, however, Republicans are actually the ones who have gained ground from redistricting: The GOP is positioned for a net gain of three to four seats in 2022 just thanks to the new lines alone.
My info was a little old, here’s something from March suggesting D +3. (Paywall)
A lot has happened since February 4th.
Yep, the radicals in robes stole 7 seats for Rs in that short time:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1541889547239399424
Just got to vote harder
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I don’t know how many states are like Ohio where you decide the day of which ballot you want, but I voted in the R primary. I’m guessing there are more Ds voting in the R primary than vice versa. But Ds are obviously still headed for a curb stomping this fall.
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I do the same.
I also think
MAGA wins, the Rinos stay home.
Rino wins, the MAGA stay home.
At least in enough number to make competitive districts lean slightly more D.
If it’s a real red district obviously the primary winner gets the seat.
Just to level set on where we are headed: Republicans are between 9-1 and 10-1 favorites to win the House in betting markets and Dems are between a 4-1 and 5-1 dog to pick up Senate seats.
This is most likely going to be a Republican rout as it usually is when the party in power does a horseshit job of governing and when most of the country perceives themselves as either worse off than they were two years ago or heading there.
This is the part that has me scratching my head. Two years ago we were in the middle of COVID. Who the fuck wants to return to the halcyon days of summer 2020?
Eh? GOP-controlled Senate is a heavy fave, it’s like -300.
Yep meant Dems are dogs I’ll edit
By the time Dems took over we had vaccines rolling out that provided hope for ending the pandemic and promises from Dems of following the science to defeat COVID.
Now we have more dead under Biden than we did under Trump, forever COVID, no funding for the winter ahead, and people critical of Dems for both doing too little and too much for COVID.
Obviously not all Dems fault, but even on COVID I could argue we are worse off than we were in Jan 2021.
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People are really good at pretending that the past was better than the present, no matter what the past was actually like. MAGA, etc.
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While true, thing are getting worse by a lot of very objective metrics. And Democrats in office are largely either doing nothing about it or actively making things even worse.
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Indeed. The overall trajectory of the US is downward, it’s not really Biden’s fault that the American empire is in decline but he is part of the problem in the sense that their denial of reality is making things worse.
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lol Scott Pruitt
https://twitter.com/lpdonovan/status/1541980212187074561?s=21&t=m3tULZ-MIZmjy-4luJY65Q
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muh gas prices
That Tahoe ain’t gonna fill itself.