https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1313161986360868872?s=21
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McSally on the verge of flipping a second senate seat, incredible
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She needs to move to another state and do some carpetbagging. Third time’s a charm, right?
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Has the same candidate flipping both the senate seats in a state in a 2 year period ever happened before?
This is absolutely insane how awful the polling is for Republicans.
The map is absolutely awful for Democrats and it’s a presidential year.
R+1 and D+9 have the same probability by that model.
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I refuse to believe it’s actually going to happen like that. He can say it’s 2 to 1 but I am certain we are living out that 1
Right. The odds are terrifying for anyone who understands probability. We’ve all suffered through many poker sessions where 5-10% events happen 3+ times in a row. I’m going to be inconsolably anxious and paranoid even if Biden has a +12 polling average on 11/2.
Why? Biden got the money in good. Whatever happens happens.
Over at PredictIt, Ohio is moving farther away into being unwinnable for Dems, but Pennsylvania is up to 70-71 cents. I don’t know why Biden is only a .64 favorite to win if he’s .70 in PA --there’s almost no scenario where he wins PA and loses the election.
Predictit seems like a terrible predictive tool. The limits are so low, and the transaction costs so high, that I have a hard time thinking there is any real predictive value. I listened to a podcast about Predictit “pros” and they make like $5k a year.
More generally, politics betting markets have limits that are just too low to attract sharp money (and information-providing insiders) and therefore are of limited value, IMO.
General market has more idiots than the individual state markets.
Also trumpers are bad with math.
I have vermont no R shares on PI that were actually worth buying, so there’s some ridiculousness on here.
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I got inside info’d TWICE in the past year on that site grrrr.
Don’t know which one you listened to but this year that was very, very doable (especially if biden wins), some people were making enough just on tweet markets.
Next year is gonna be very difficult to do that now that they got clamped down on
While I agree, $5k a year is off by at least an order of magnitude
This is all true, but it gives me a daily dose of hopium.
I don’t see that happening, unless there’s some weirdly-specific Wisconsin gaffe. Like if Joe says “The Packers suck!” or something like that.
covid is hitting packerland the hardest so even that