Sure, a person you don’t tip and scribble on the check as to why for 200 Alex
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New tone?
too soon
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Did he have that wooden racket custom made or did he find it in a landfill someplace?
It’s a family heirloom
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Actual election update:
Biden’s lead in PA has grown to 68,312.
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29K votes outstanding… Looking good to get into my 75K to 150K range!
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Shout out @anon38180840 who said Biden would win PA by about 100k votes at the absolute height of doom at like 2am on 11/4.
That fucking needle man. Needle guy taking a victory lap on Georgia tilts me 10x harder than Trump right now.
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How many state legislatures do we need to control to rename Christmas day to Stalin Did Nothing Wrong day?
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On the one hand the needle was complete trash. On the other hand, it probably played a huge role in fucking up the PI markets and allowing me to get in at sick prices and make back my TX losses and then some, so I’m not hating on it too hard.
The key to the needle is to go into the night laughing in the face of the needle and expecting it to wildly overreact to the early returns.
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1328111934529548288
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1328112815283052546
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Your pony’s colt’s foal will still have a job on January 21st.
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The needle wasn’t “complete trash”, it had a single failing in Georgia where it overestimated Trump’s lead because none of the vote was in from Atlanta yet. When votes from Atlanta came in way more pro-Biden than was expected, that’s when it jumped to saying Biden slightly ahead. Aside from that it performed well everywhere as far as I can see. It was correct on GA after the one jump and correct on NC and FL all night.
I think you guys underestimate the difficulty of doing predictions like that and in particular being able to estimate what your uncertainty is. You can’t simulate elections because “what are the parameters within which this election might fall” is precisely the thing you’re trying to figure out. The needles did approximately as well as expert analysts on the night and vastly better than cable networks and prediction markets. You’re just mad because it has the veneer of authoritative mathematics, I guess. The people who were panicking though, the bit where you looked at the needle results entirely in the South and went “oh no we’ve lost PA and the election” was nothing to do with the needle. Biden would still have won the election even if the needle’s early call on GA had been correct.
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It was fine once a decent sample of results were in. It swings too wildly based on early samples. I’m not convinced it was correct on NC all night, I think that may be results oriented. It was a very close race and it jumped to Trump 85-95% pretty early if I recall correctly, mostly based on FL results I think.
No way to know for sure, but I think it was probably an overreaction.
Oh I know, but that’s why the needle is a bad idea.
Yeah I mean there are two dynamics and the human overreaction to the needle in three southern states was definitely worse than the needle’s overreaction to Miami-Dade.
But when the needle went to like 85-95% for GA and NC I was very quickly saying I thought they were both very much in play and it was an overreaction. Both wound up being very close.
It’s worth noting that an overly reactionary needle is l probably better for page views…