For sure. Sadly nobody is going to jail. Trump is going to use the pardon power more wildly than any previous president. He will be pardoning everyone in his administration, himself included.
All these federal pardons will largely defang state charges too I think.
I doubt it. Heās going to see them all as people that failed him. Why would he hand out pardons to a bunch of losers? Heāll hold the pardons back out of spite.
Because he shouldnāt.
Hard to say. He might do it to keep people from snitching on him now that he isnāt above the law. Iām sure lots of these people got plenty of dirt on him and they can remind him of that.
He might not do it because heās such an unbelievable narcissist and he will think people failed him.
Iām going to venture a guess that the race will be called in Bidenās favor Sunday afternoon, a short time after kickoff. Not as many people will be tuned in. People will be watching football. Trumpkins wonāt want to leave the tv to go out hellraising. Trumpās whining non-concession speech wonāt draw eyeballs. Sunday afternoon. Thatās the time to pull the trigger.
Do we really think theyāre holding off because of violence? I doubt thats it. I was bullish on there being violence, and now Iām not really worried about it. Even the most insane Trumpers I know are all already resigned to him losing.
They think Democrats cheated and its over. If there was going to be violence it already would have happened in PA when they still had a chance.
Plus the media doesnāt give a shit about violence, violence is good ratings. Itās either a credibility thing or a ratings thing.
Either its for ratings, or they do have some math shit where they need it to hit 99.5% and it hasnāt yet because there is some weird fantasy scenario where provisional ballots in certain districts break what they need to for Trump.
One thing is certain, the media does not give a fuck about violence or what is best for the country. They care about profits.
I mean I still think there will be lots and lots of long term violence from right wing terrorists, but definitely no mass violence from Trumpers because the media they think is fake news called it. The ones who are still holding out hope donāt care about the media, theyāre expecting the courts to save them. Those people will only realize its over when the supreme court refuses to change the result of the election
Yeah I guess that makes sense even though I donāt see how PA isnāt a 99.5% lock. Maybe theyāre waiting for 100%? Hopefully PA passes 35k tomorrow and they call it. If not by tomorrow theyāre waiting for a 100% impossibility for Biden to lose and who knows how long that takes. Like if mail ins break 99/1 for Trump still canāt call it cuz theres a chance doncha know.
They care about credibility and they want 99.5% confidence. However, 99.5% confidence is based on oneās priors/model/theory of the domain and interpretation of incoming data.
I suspect the models decision desks are using are likely different from the update and extrapolate approach of people like Kornacki (hence the early AZ call), with the latter perhaps superior in the present context if you know that, eg, all that is left to count are mail in and provisional ballots.
For example, decision desk could be focused on historical results from different precincts (and not distinguishing early vs mail vs day of) while anchors just yolo because, lol, only mail in are left and thatās obv hugely democratic.
This teleological theory of how elections are called is a bit too conspiracy theory-ish.
Havenāt chunks of provisional ballots already been counted and theyāve been breaking for Biden? Less than his mail ins but still breaking for him?
That said I guess the models can see >.5% chance that the remaining privisionals break enough for Trump. Donāt they need to break like 80/20 though when you factor in remaining mail too? Seems impossible they break harder for Trump than the Eday votes.
Numbers in the article are from Friday morning. GA at like 7700, not 1600, now.
PA also at 27k+ last I saw.
I suspect the models are not fully tuned for the present context/situation.
Iām really proud of you guys finally getting some sleep. Hydrate and exercise too guys!
As stressed as Iāve been Iāve been getting my sleep. That said I do kind of regret to sweating it out as much with you guys, I was here for Biden passing in PA though which was everything. I nominate Cuse for overall MVP. For his door knockin, donatin, and full 180 from an insane panic mess to just the absolute most confident dude in the country calling the lock first. Beautiful champ.
Yeah it appears that there is absolutely no plan in place to deal with the remains of Trumpism in America. Trying to make the country āas it wasā pre Trump is barn-door-horse stuff. No progress will be made until they take a scorched earth approach to Facebook-fueled white supremacist hate. Start here and update for 2020 technology:
Morning Joe is calling bullshit this morning and saying the lack of call is due to āpressureā with pressure being baby Trump. So he basically says the word is out that itās got to be mathematically impossible and outside runoff margin.
They didnāt really denazify in Germany.